What Will Happen to Home Prices in 2026? Here’s My Take for St. Johns County

The headlines are asking the big question: what’s next for home prices in 2026?

After a long stretch of high mortgage rates, homebuyers finally caught a break this fall. The Federal Reserve’s back-to-back rate cuts in September and October sent the average 30-year mortgage down into the low-6% range — a big improvement from the 7-plus percent rates earlier this year.

That drop has already reignited interest among buyers who had been sitting on the sidelines. But even as activity picks up, experts across the country are split on what comes next.

Will lower borrowing costs bring more buyers and push prices up again? Could growing inventory give buyers more leverage? Or will economic uncertainty keep the market flat?

Those are the right questions — and as someone who’s lived and worked in the St. Johns County market for decades, here’s how I see it.

Nationally: A Pause Before the Next Move

According to many of the experts quoted in the national coverage, the next year or two will likely be a period of stability.Home prices have already landed after the run-up of 2020-2022, and with mortgage rates easing, the most likely scenario is a market that stays steady — not surging, not sinking.

Think of it as the “cruise-control” phase of the housing cycle: the fundamentals are sound, but the big tailwinds and headwinds are balancing each other out.

For buyers across most of the country, that means more predictability. For sellers, it means pricing and presentation matter again.

Locally: Why St. Johns County Could Outperform

Here in St. Johns County, I believe the story will be a little brighter.

Yes, prices have already settled — the sharp gains of 2020-2022 are behind us. But what sets our market apart is that stability here still comes with upside.

Here’s why:

• Demand remains strong. Families continue to move to St. Johns for our schools, safety, and sense of community.
• We’re supply-constrained. There’s simply not enough quality inventory to meet the level of interest, and that’s likely to continue into 2026.
• Quality of life keeps driving value. Beaches, golf, local businesses, and a genuine community culture make people want to stay — which supports steady appreciation.
• Economic strength in Northeast Florida. New jobs, new investment, and an expanding local economy continue to fuel healthy growth.

So while I agree with the national experts that prices overall may remain flat, my forecast for St. Johns County is modest but positive appreciation. I expect the market here to quietly outperform many others across the country.

What Buyers and Sellers Should Take Away

If you’re a buyer:
Don’t wait for another dip. Rates have already improved, and homes that check the right boxes will continue to hold value. The best time to buy is before everyone else decides it’s safe again.

If you’re a seller:
You’re in a much calmer market than a year or two ago — but that’s a good thing. Buyers are serious, not speculative. Price strategically, and you’ll move your property without needing to discount heavily.

If you’re an investor:
Focus on markets with real fundamentals. St. Johns County has them: population growth, limited supply, and enduring appeal. Flat national averages don’t mean flat everywhere.

My Forecast

Nationally, I agree with the article’s experts: 2026 will be a year of stability. Prices won’t skyrocket, but they won’t fall off either.

Locally, I expect something more encouraging — steady, sustainable growth. Not the flash of 2021, but the kind of quiet strength that keeps this area one of the most desirable places to live in Florida.

If you’re wondering how to navigate what’s ahead — whether to buy, sell, or invest — We’d love to talk. The next chapter of the housing market won’t be written by headlines. It’ll be written neighborhood by neighborhood, right here at home. If you are interested in getting a valuation of your home please enter your address below and we will get write back to you.